Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
